With the Tibetean fires raging, one can’t but wonder at the actions and the underlying motives of the two main protagonists in the conflict : the Dalai Lama and the Chinese communist party.

The Dalai Lama apparently had said that he does not seek independence from China but just autonomy. But in my opinion he is just buying time. The Chinese since they took over Tibet have gone to great lengths at ethnic/cultural cleansing to consolidate their control of the region. Not only have they raised a political/spiritual power structure  parallel to the Dalai Lama (under their control ofcourse) they have also tried to erase the distinctness of Tibetean culture by demographic transplantation of Han Chinese into the region as well as subverting traditional cultural values by the rapid industrialization of the region.

The motive for Tibetean independence/freedom from the Chinese lies primarily in their distinct culture which is quite different from the Chinese. To erase that would in the long run dilute the spirit of the resistance against Chinese occupation and this I think is what the Dalai Lama fears. So his seeming compliance to the concept of a single China while demanding autonomy for Tibet, where he hopes that the distinct Tibetean identity would still survive.

The Dalai Lama probably going by the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and other satellite countries which became free of Soviet occupation after  the eventual collapse of the communist state - probably believes that it is only a matter of time the same repeats with the Chinese communist state. So he probably considers the salvage of the Tibetean cultural identity as of paramount importance in the eventuality of the collapse of the communist state at which time the Tibeteans could break free from the Chinese clutches.

But in my opinion communism in China is quite a different cup of tea from the Soviet Union. Primarily due to the nature of Chinese culture.

Chinese culture with its values clearly grounded in Confucian normative ethics, its non-theistic spiritualism, its emphasis on unquestioning obedience and respect to elders, the welfare of the family over the individual, the historical power of the Confucian bureaucracy, discipline, respect for tradition etc is actually quite complementary to the communist political system which too demands similar things of the populace it rules/controls. Actually I have met a lot of mainland Chinese in the USA – but still haven’t come across a single one who talks anything negative about the political system back at home – quite in contrast to many Russians and other East Europeans who talk of their “wasted years” in the Soviet block.

And to their credit the Chinese leadership have actually made an economic success of their country by converting it to a vast efficient low-cost factory! In contrast to the Soviet Union which tried to confront the West head on, the ever pragmatic Chinese have pretty much made the West an accessory to their own development by snaring the West with their production capabilities and their huge consumer base. So the West is not bent on destroying the Chinese state the way they were with the Soviet Union - rather they just want a more democratic state in China to ensure a more profitable sustained partnership in commerce.

So the Dalai Lama might be in for a surprise if he thinks that the Chinese communist state is going to fold up like the Soviet Union.

The Chinese too are biding their time – they think that with the Dalai Lama’s eventual death the quest for Tibetean freedom/independence will wane. But I feel that too to be a mistake. People have long cultural memories and a culture as spiritual as Tibet especially with its popularity in the West and its support system in Dharmashala is not going to die out that easily.

The Chinese should look towards northern Ireland where the British have done something similar but are now finding themselves holding a tiger by the tail. It is very difficult to hold on to a land when its people are against you. You can fight an army, but you cannot fight a population.

While the transplanted Han in Tibet have no real links to the land, the same is not the case for the Tibeteans who are not going to give up their quest for independence in the foreseeable future. With the radicalization of the Tibeteans and the eventual collapse of the Dalai Lama’s control, it is very likely that the stakes will soon be raised in Tibet with the aid of forces inimical to the Chinese state. And the Tibeteans are a martial people who once had their own empire - such a people do not give up easily. The Chinese are soon going to realize that the Dalai Lama who they consider a problem, is the one who is ensuring some kind of a peace in Tibet. With the control slipping out of his hands all hell might break loose. The Chinese might find themselves in a position one day to resettle a huge population of Han Chinese from Tibet.

Finally it will all boil down to whether the Chinese are getting as much in return for what they are spending to keep Tibet.